The Labour and Welfare Bureau (LWB) on 22 September 2026 published the report on the Mid-term Update of Manpower Projection. The update narrows the projected overall manpower shortage by 2028 from the previous projection of approximately 180,000 to some 130,000, while placing artificial intelligence (AI) firmly inside the official labour ledger: clerical support workers are projected to record a surplus, skilled technical workers plus services and sales workers still account for about 60 per cent of the overall shortage, and manpower remains tight in key industries including innovation and technology, aviation, construction, city operation and healthcare services.
This article summarises figures and policy directions already published in the Government press release and on the LWB report page, focusing on how AI enters the official manpower accounts.
Overall shortage narrows; key industries remain tight
Looking to 2028, the overall manpower shortage is projected to narrow from approximately 180,000 in the previous round to some 130,000. The press release attributes the easing to moderated growth in manpower demand amid economic restructuring and AI adoption, alongside talent admission and labour importation that have supplemented part of the labour force.
By occupation group, shortages over the next three years are projected to concentrate in “skilled technical workers” and “services and sales workers”, together about 60 per cent of the overall shortage. Roles that rely on interpersonal interaction and complex craftsmanship are harder for AI to replace, yet remain tight because of workforce ageing and difficulties attracting youth entrants.
Across selected industries, demand is particularly acute in innovation and technology, aviation, construction, city operation and healthcare services. A narrower headline shortage, therefore, does not mean key sectors already have enough people.
Labour-force path: external workforce offsets part of the decline
From 2023 to 2025, Hong Kong’s overall labour force (excluding foreign domestic helpers) edged down from 3.50 million to 3.47 million. Without the external workforce from admission and importation measures in the same period, the 2025 labour force would be estimated at only 3.35 million.
Looking ahead to 2028, even after accounting for various sources of new entrants, the overall labour force is projected to decrease gradually to approximately 3.40 million. Absent the supplementary impact of admission measures, the labour force would drop further to around 3.21 million, and the overall manpower shortage would widen to about 300,000.
How AI enters the ledger: productivity, clerical surplus, and transition
The report further quantifies AI’s labour-market effects. Research indicates that adoption of AI in applicable roles will boost individual productivity by 20 per cent to 30 per cent. Companies are currently managing the transition through natural attrition, and the risk of large-scale layoffs in the short term remains relatively low. However, approximately 20 per cent to 30 per cent of positions—primarily clerical roles—will face restructuring.
On occupational structure, as companies expand AI for routine administrative tasks, “clerical support workers” are projected to record a manpower surplus of approximately 25,000 to 30,000 by 2028. That surplus sits in the same projection frame as the persistent shortages in skilled technical and services/sales roles.
Two groups are quantified as most affected: displacement of entry-level positions has reduced vacancies suitable for fresh graduates by approximately 60 per cent compared with 2022; and about 70,000 middle-aged clerical support workers aged 45 to 54 without post-secondary education face transition pressure. At the same time, demand continues to grow for emerging AI experts, particularly “composite talent” with both AI application skills and sector knowledge.
Soft skills and the policy response: equipping, not layoff-first
Facing job reshaping, the press release stresses active up-skilling. Proficiency in “human-machine collaboration” will become a basic competency, while soft skills that AI cannot replace—interpersonal communication, critical thinking and problem-solving—remain core to competitiveness.
The Secretary for Labour and Welfare, Mr Chris Sun, said the mid-term update shows that talent admission and labour importation have helped stabilise the labour force and ease the overall shortage, while demand in certain industries remains acute. In response to AI-driven job reshaping, the Government will continue to work with stakeholders on targeted measures: strengthening retraining, providing flexible skill-conversion programmes for elderly and middle-aged employees, enhancing employment support for young graduates, and exploring incentives for on-the-job retraining by employers and employees. It will also promote “AI for All” and support lifelong learning so workers at all levels can equip themselves for the new era of AI.
Read the projection on three time layers
It helps to separate three layers when reading this mid-term update: the 2028 overall shortage and industry/occupation structure; AI-linked productivity gains, clerical restructuring and natural-attrition transition; and the policy track of retraining, skill conversion and “AI for All”. The official texts set out a projection and response framework; they do not claim the transition is already complete.
For readers following AI and work, the report’s checkable contribution is that it places “clerical surplus” and “persistent key shortages” in the same set of numbers—and lists the transition path and skill directions alongside them.
Primary sources
- Government press release (TC): 政府發布最新人力推算中期更新報告 (2026-09-22) https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202609/22/P2026092200242.htm
- Government press release (EN): Government publishes report on Mid-term Update of Manpower Projection (2026-09-22) https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202609/22/P2026092200246.htm
- Labour and Welfare Bureau: Mid-term Update of Manpower Projection https://www.lwb.gov.hk/tc/highlights/manpower_projection/index.html (EN twin: https://www.lwb.gov.hk/en/highlights/manpower_projection/index.html)
